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Ed Milliband face questions from Jeremy Paxman in the first of the General Election TV Debates

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Ed vs David: Miliband triumphs in the first TV debate



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With pundits still predicting a hung-parliament result in May, all eyes were on Miliband to be able to put Cameron’s feet to the fire in the first of the TV debates. Still smarting from the final prime minister’s questions, where he walked into a trap on the issue of raising the VAT, Miliband had the most to gain from the debate.

At PMQs, Miliband challenged Cameron to rule out raising VAT in the event of a Conservative-led government after the election. Cameron smugly retorted with a simple ‘Yes’ before attacking a dumbstruck Labour bench on their own refusal to rule out an increase on National Insurance contributions.

Unsurprisingly, Miliband came out swinging in the debate – reminding us of the qualities that helped him beat his brother for the Labour leadership in 2010, and showing why Cameron was right to try and avoid a head-to head confrontation.

The audience was treated to vintage Paxman, refusing to let Cameron sidestep questions on zero-hour contracts, foodbanks and the failure of his net migration pledge. For anyone familiar with Paxman’s verbal flaying of Michael Howard, Cameron’s missteps were a red rag to Paxman’s bull.

Asked if he could live on a zero-hour contract, Cameron collapsed into uncertainties and vagaries:

Cameron: That's not the question, the question is--
Paxman: It's the question I'm asking!”

After such a withering line of questions by the chair, it was unlikely that Cameron was ever going to recover his footing in the debate.

Against all odds, Miliband not only held his own against Paxman, but went blow for blow with the ex-Newsnight bulldog. “You’re important, Jeremy, you’re not that important,” he retorted to Paxman’s suggestion that a hung parliament was inevitable (a hit, a very palpable hit).

The instant Guardian/ICM poll gave Cameron victory by 54-46, but of those voters who changed their mind after the debate, 56 per cent backed Labour and just 30 per cent backed the Tories.

Of course, polls are only half of the story – for accurate betting predictions, we should look to the bookmakers. So what effect has the debate had on the odds of Labour winning more seats than the Conservatives?

Most Seats

 

Ladbrokes

Bet365

SkyBet

Conservative

4/9

2/5

2/5

Labour

7/4

7/4

2/1

With odds still favouring a Conservative victory, Miliband will need to capitalise on his victory to turn the tide against the opposition.

For more on how the betting markets predict the election, be sure to check out our infographic to see who the bookies say will win.

Sources

BBC. (2014). When Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman grilled Michael Howard. bbc.co.uk

Perraudin, F. (2015). Osbourne accused of misleading MPs over VAT to set up Milliband at PMQs. theguardian.com

 

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Jack produces topical blogs for Howtobet4free tackling the key issues in the world of sport. Jack also publishes articles for a number of publications each week, and can be found on Twitter by following @JWinterr.

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