With the last full week of campaigning upon us before the General Election on the 7^th May, the Conservatives have ditched any form of meaningful and sensible policies in favour of populist crowd pleasing bribes, while Labour promise their magical money tree (mansion tax and the banks) will provide all the cash needed for the NHS, students, the low paid and any other groups who needs a handout. To make things worse we have a significant group, the SNP who literally want the end of Britain. It’s a sorry state of affairs and opinion polls are still completely indecipherable, however it is the betting markets which appear to give the best indicator of the outcome.  I look at the traditional fixed odds and spread betting markets in order to try and decipher what may happen.

Odds for (Bet365)

Conservatives Minority Government: 3/1

Labour Minority government: 6/4

Conservative Majority: 7/1

Labour Majority:  33/1

The above would indicate that the Tories will win the most seats, however Labour are more likely to be able to gain control of government. However this ultimately depends on Labour striking a deal of some kind with the SNP, perhaps even Plaid Cymru, Greens and other fringe left-wing parties.

The spread betting markets (SpreadEx) show the following figures for General Election seats:

Conservatives: 281-286

Labour: 268-273

Lib Dems: 24-27

SNP: 45-48

UKIP: 3-5

Therefore the maths could pan out as follows:

Conservatives (286) + Lib Dems (27) = 313 + DUP (9) + UKIP (5) = 327

Or

Labour (273) + SNP (48) = 321 + 9 (fringe left parties) = 330

This would conceivably allow Cameron to put together another coalition government, being the incumbent and winning the most seats he would have every right to have first go at forming a coalition. Miliband meanwhile would be ready to have a go with his rainbow coalition.

With less than two weeks expect further volatility and movement as all parties come up with all manner of bribes to win your vote.

New Account Offer

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply

Click to Claim