So Tuesday 11th December is the big House of Commons Brexit vote, but what are the betting opportunities for the Brexit withdrawl agreement and where should you be putting your money!?
Only last week Paddy Power were offering 1/4 (1.25 decimal odds) on Theresa May's deal to be voted down. Since then the odds have tumbled considerably against the deal, as MP after MP come out against it. Further controversy surrounding the publication of legal advice on the deal has only helped reinforce the momentum. In short, it's not looking like this deal will get through!
Sky News has reported that 399 MPs have openly opposed the deal, dwarfing the number that publicly expressed intent to vote for it. Given this it would take almighty change of direction for the vote to pass.
So what are the bookmakers saying....
Brexit Withdrawl Agreement Betting Odds
No - 1/14 with Betfair
Yes - 11/2 with Betfair
No - 1/16 with Betfred
Yes - 8/1 with Betfred
No - 1/14 with Bet Victor
Yes - 7/1 with Bet Victor
Yes - 11/2 with Paddy Power
No - 1/9 with Unibet
Yes - 4/1 with Unibet
Brexit Vote - Summing Up
I'm not one for recommending short odds bankers, however in this case I really do think it's different. The numbers just don't lie. There is very little chance that MPs will vote to pass this Brexit withdrawl agreement.
I would caveat this with a few words of caution I would highlight is that the vote could even be delayed. There are rumours May move to delay the vote. I would be surprised if it was delayed, but the situation is so unpredictable it's something to consider.
The other point to note is that most bookmakers will have a deadline of no later than 31st December 2018. So there is a slim chance that if this vote on Tuesday gets voted down, another one may be on the table afterwards. I doubt very much there would be time to organise this before the end of 2018. In any event it's more likely Theresa May will be removed than given a chance to negotiate a new deal.
I would expect many bookmakers will remove this market in the next 24 hours as we get closer to the vote. If you are looking for a pre-Christamas betting banker, this is it! Get on while you can!
My Recommended Bets
- Back: Selection: No - House of Commons Vote to Pass - best priced odds with Unibet - 1/9
Francois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account