Chelsea take on PSG in this second leg last 16 Champions League tie, down a goal on aggregate after losing 2-1 in Paris three weeks ago.
Chelsea have a vital away goal from the first leg, in a game which represents the best chance of Chelsea rescuing a disappointing season from the jaws of defeat. Chelsea could go through with a 1 nil victory, with the recent form suggesting the game will go right down to the last kick. The two teams have shared the spoils in recent years, with Chelsea winning through against PSG in 2014, going through on away goals. Whereas PSG went through in 2015 with ten men after Tiago Silva’s late goal in extra time saw off Chelsea on the away goals rule after extra time. Since then Chelsea have lost their spiritual leader Jose Mourinho and rather lost their way. There are sign’s new manager, Guus Hiddink has reinvigorated the team, but it’s seems far too late for this season.
The Chelsea Threat
Chelsea talisman Diego Costa was missing for the 1-1 draw with Stoke City at the weekend, although is expected to shrug off a minor tendon injury to be fit for the game on Wednesday. Diego Costa is best priced at 5/1 with Coral to be the first goalscorer in the match, although has only scored one goal in the competition this season. Diego Costa has a lower goal per game record, than in the league, so 5/1 doesn’t seem tempting enough for my liking.
Chelsea emerging starlet Betrand Traore has been impressive in recent weeks, and looks to have a huge amount of potential. Traore has scored 4 goals in his last 5 appearances, of which 3 of those appearances have been off the bench. Guus Hiddink clearly favours the young Bukina Faso forward, but I would be surprised If Traore starts in a game of this significance. So the 3/1 for Traore to score anytime with Betfred seems a little optimistic to me.
Further team news is emerging that club captain John Terry is very unlikely to be in the squad to face PSG, which will be a psychological blow given Terry is the heart and soul of Chelsea FC. Chelsea’s defence seems a little fragile to me, and I fully expect PSG to cause big problems on Wednesday night.
The big question remains as to whether last season’s PFA Player Of The Year, Eden Hazard will find his form in time to pull Chelsea through to the quarter final stage. Eden Hazard is best priced 9/1 with Stan James for the first goal scorer in the match, which is great value given the pedigree of player.
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG come into this game on the back of a ludicrous 23 point lead in their domestic league, which is probably equally indicative of PSG’s prowess, as it is the weakest of the French Ligue 1 division. Some might question whether the lack of domestic competition could have a detrimental impact on PSG in the Champions League. PSG have had a little wobble by their standards, having lost to Olympique Lyonnais and drawn with Montpellier within their last 3 games, but have largely had it all their own way this season.
PSG possess two top strikers in Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani, who you would fancy to break through against a weakened Chelsea defence. Ibrahimovic has already knocked in 36 goals in all competitions (7 of those in the Champions League), and is hot favourite to be first goal scorer at 4/1 with William Hill. I am loathed to back short priced first goalscorer odds, so this bet really doesn’t appeal to me.
PSG have their own injury concerns, with Marco Verratti and Blaise Matuidi facing late fitness tests. Laurent Blanc has better news on former Manchester United (flop) Angel Di Maria, who has recovered from a thigh injury last week. With the wealth of attacking talent on show from PSG you would expect the French side to pose a dangerous threat to what is a rather makeshift Chelsea backline. The pace and creativity of PSG will create chances, so for me Chelsea will have to score at least a couple of goals to have any chance of going through – I don’t see Chelsea winning this game 1-0.
Another point worth mentioning is the PSG goalkeeper, Kevin Trapp, who has 5 Champions League clean sheets this season in 7 games. Trapp also ranks in the top 5 goalkeepers in Europe based on the average number of goals conceded in a match. While these stats are impressive, the presence of Thiago Silva has a lot to do with why Trapp’s statistics are so good. It will be intriguing to see how Chelsea approach the game, and whether they can hold back the threat of a very talented and creative PSG side.
Chelsea vs PSG Recent Head to Heads
PSG 2-1 Chelsea (16th February 2016)
Chelsea 2-2 PSG (AET) (11th March 2015)
PSG 1-1 Chelsea (17th February 2015)
Chelsea 2-0 PSG (8th April 2014)
PSG 3-1 Chelsea (2nd April 2014)
Chelsea 0-0 PSG (24th November 2004)
PSG 0-3 Chelsea (14th September 2004)
Recommended Bets
With Chelsea in deficit from the first leg the emphasis is on Chelsea to attack and take the game to PSG. It’s always a difficult kind of game to call given the away goals rule, because one early goal from either side can throw the game completely open and change the dynamic. I would be confident that PSG will score at Stamford Bridge and that would mean Chelsea have to score two or more goals at least to ensure to go through to the next round. Also I think given the history of the tie, I think a bet on bookings would be a smart way to play things. Zlatan Ibrahimovic was sent off last year in the same game last year, and if we don’t see a sending off, I would be surprised if we don’t see a highly competitive game with lots of fouls, bookings and play acting.
My recommended bets for the game:
- PSG/PSG – Half Time/Full Time – best priced at 7/2 with Betfred. Click here to place that bet.
- Over 65 Booking Points – best priced at 23/20 with William Hill. Click here to place that bet.
- Over 2.5 goals – best priced at 6/5 with Betfair Sportsbook. Click here to place that bet.
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Click to ClaimFrancois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account
