Blogs and Articles: General Election

Top 4 Sports Betting Offers

Minority Report: The Conservatives' Worst Nightmare



Like Tweet +1

On Thursday we head out to choose who we want to govern our country for the next five years. According to many polls, on Friday we will wake up to a strange new political landscape.  

The Torys have been striding through the past five years with the sort of behaviour that suggests they believe the British public accidentally forgot to vote in a Conservative majority, it is now highly likely that the public will vote against this once more. The people don’t lie. 

Despite the efforts of Tory doublespeak in speeches and in the printed words of their media attack dogs, the stage is set for a Labour minority government to take the stage. Can you hear that? … No, not your neighbours washing machine… Yes! There it is. The sound of thousands of Conservatives shrieking at this prospect.

Cameron spoke out today against the ‘legitimacy’ of a Labour government that has less seats than a Conservative one, this has once again been echoed by his friends in The Telegraph and The Times, setting the tone for media discourse in the aftermath of Thursday night. Our shiny-faced PM is starting to worry that he may well have that ‘North London Geek’ swiping the top role from beneath him at the last.

 

The Right Wing plan to destabilise a non-Cameron lead government

The question of whether or not an Ed Miliband government is legitimate is a dangerous one. Not only is it a simple message to shove down peoples throats, but it’s one that people will easily misinterpret. A bit like at Christmas dinner when you gleefully shove a roast potato into your gob, only to find it’s actually a bastard parsnip.

Calling into question if a Labour-lead coalition can govern because they didn’t get the most seats, or indeed a if a minority should rule is worrying. It undermines British Parliamentary democracy in its present form. Once you start questioning that, you’re opening the door to all sorts of nasty possibilities. Nowhere in the current cabinet manual, signed by David Cameron, does it say that only the party with the most seats has the authority necessary to form a government.

What it says (on p.2, so not even hidden away next to something boring like road signs) is this:

The government of the day holds office by virtue of its ability to command the confidence of the house of commons”

 

It doesn’t say:

“The government of the day is decided by whichever party won the most seats, any smaller parties can not legitimately lead a government”

The idea of the party with the most votes and seats, but no majority, being the only ones able to form a government sounds very much like the basics of the proportional representation system that the Conservatives (and to be fair, many labour politicians) reject with such enthusiasm. You can’t have it both ways.

This means that the tidal wave of bile that will be directed at a Miliband-lead government of either  a coalition or a minority, is a group of powerful men (and a handful of women) attempting to do something they’re no strangers to: bullshit the British public into believing something that isn’t true, purely so that they might cling onto their slice of power a while longer. 

The media will tear off its shirt and dive in all guns blazing if Cameron fails to form a government. The prospect of one lead by anyone else is unthinkable to them because they know that Miliband won’t pander to their demands. When it comes to the media, Miliband quite simply doesn’t give a flying monkey’s toss - which means that should he lead the next government, the media could find itself muzzled as per the findings of the Leveson enquiry.

 

But Minority and Coalition governments are the exception, aren’t they?

Time for a little context: In Kaare Strom’s book ‘Minority Government and Majority Rule’ he points out that pre-1990, a third of all parliamentary democracies ran a minority government, arguing that in many cases they can be highly effective. Then you’ve got that lesser known European state, Germany. They have had one majority government since the Nazi party, that was under Konrad Adenauer after the war ended. The rest have been minorities or coalitions. In fact, in Germany it’s nothing too strange if the government isn’t lead by the leader of the strongest party. 

In Britain however this would be a huge change. 

We’re standing at the end of the era of majority governments who serve one chunk of the electorate. We won’t be seeing the leviathan leaders in the mould of Th*tcher or Bla*r for quite some time. For now we are looking out into the unknown, and that’s what people benefitting from the current system, people like Paul Dacre, Rupert Murdoch, David Cameron and the city fat cats, check under their bed for before they have the butler come and turn the lights out.

The ‘First Past the Post’ electoral system, lauded for its ability to bring about stable majority government is an old dog from another time, and like old dogs its started to shit on the political carpet rather than bringing in strong government. Whilst I wrote in favour of the FPTP system in a recent article for HTB4F, I’m starting to believe that Proportional Representation would deliver far more ‘legitimate’, if we’re to use the current terminology, governments who serve the people who vote for them. I’m still not sure we’ll be seeing the back of it any time soon though.

For now we’re going to have to hope that an old dog can pull off a new trick.

 

I thought minority governments were a bit pony?

This is the usual line of criticism levelled at minority government, and it is right, there are minority governments that have broken as swiftly as chairs beneath John Prescott. Minority governments are forced to bob and weave, constantly courting the alliance of other parties to try and pass legislation through the house. More often than not they will quickly reach a point where the rest of the commons flip them the bird and pass a vote of no confidence (which I thought was the way Queen Amidala ousted Chancellor Vallorum rather than an actual political move) in the government and force an election.

This is all well and good, but the political winds seem to be blowing in Labour’s favour as well as the contents of my dustbin down the street, currently. Miliband has ruled out a coalition with the SNP, and for a minute we will make the strange assumption that a politician keeps his word. The rise of the SNP has certainly weakened Labour’s standing, there is no doubt about that, but a strong left-progressive SNP presence in the house of commons alongside support from green and Plaid Cymru should see support for Labour’s policies. After all, many of Labours popular policies are shared by these other centre-left parties. This suddenly makes working with the rest of parliament look a whole lot easier for Ed and the gang.

They also have the advantage of the pure and vicious hatred that the Scots have of the Tory party. The SNP have very publicly offered themselves up to the Labour party as coalition partners and it’s clear that they don’t control what Labour choose to do. Could you imagine the backlash from north of the border to the nationalists if they helped instigate a vote of no confidence which resulted in another election and a Tory victory? The result would be a shot in the arm for Scottish Labour and could see Nicola Sturgeon plummet in popularity. They’re stuck between the Labour frying pan and the Tory fire.

So we could genuinely see a minority Labour government, at least for a short time. Time will tell if this is a good thing, but it will certainly be better than five more years of callous public schoolboys, deaf to the voices of the people they represent and intent on the demolition of all that our grandparents and great-grandparents fought so hard to attain.

 

The political might of the progressive left is stronger than it has ever been. Divided between red and yellow, yes, but the prevailing desire for equality, support for society’s most vulnerable, a thriving health service and a government that works for the people: these are demands booming  out across the political landscape. 

 

The Conservative Party should be getting nervous.

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply

Click to Claim

Jack produces topical blogs for Howtobet4free tackling the key issues in the world of sport. Jack also publishes articles for a number of publications each week, and can be found on Twitter by following @JWinterr.

View other articles by