If jump racing had a UEFA Champions League Final equivalent, it would no doubt be The Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. Three miles and two furlongs on a stamina sapping undulating course, twenty two of the toughest fences in the business and then you have to get up that hill. It takes a special horse to win it with the best of attributes: speed, guts, luck, precision and most of all, stamina.
The Big Five
This year’s renewal represents an enormous conundrum of options for the punter, not to mention a lot of head-scratching. The race could go off with a potential five joint-favourites!
Don Cossack
The market is narrowly headed by the Gordon Elliot trained Don Cossack, who at the end of the 2014/2015 season was the highest rated chaser in UK/Ireland after clobbering Willie Mullins’ Djakadam by 6 lengths at Aintree. I had the opportunity to see him run in a small field 3 mile Grade One event at Down Royal last October: he won without doing a great deal against average opposition but he did impress me with his effortless jumping and big galloping stride: reminds me a little of Sprinter Sacre with the way he travels. The King George at Kempton 2 months later probably represents the bigger form book mystery of the season. Whilst on the heels of eventual winner Cue Card and Vautour, he fell at the second last. It’s true he was being niggled by his jockey Bryan Cooper but he had responded well to pressure. Generally, the horse does need to be kept up to his work and clearly stays well although considering the challenges of The Gold Cup, I wouldn’t be overly confident. Let’s also not forget that he was well beaten in The Ryanair Chase last year. An uneasy favourite at 4/1 best with Bet 365, Coral and SkyBet.
Vautour
Extremely unlucky to be narrowly edged out by Cue Card in the King George, Vautour has nearly everything that defines a Gold Cup horse. We know he loves Cheltenham: his 14 length hammering of the field in the JLT Novices Chase at the last festival was arguably the best performance of that week. He’s been in great form this season. My only concern would be the trip: he’ll be going into uncharted territory at 3 miles 2 furlongs. He could be vulnerable in the dying strides, as witnessed in that King George second. Paddy Power is offering 5/1 best for this Willie Mullins ride.
Djakadam
Second in last year’s Gold Cup and hoping to go one better. His recent form is hard to judge however. A decent win at 2m 4f at Punchestown was followed by a 10th fence fall at Cheltenham when appearing to go well. Whether he would have kept up with eventual winner Smad Place is another question. I think he needs to improve a little to figure here. 11/2 best with Coral and SkyBet.
Cue Card
Seems to have really silenced his doubters this season with an impeccable three wins on the bounce. The King George win is the 3 mile form of the season without doubt. However, followers of the stats will be concerned that no horse older than 9 has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn back in 1998. Nevertheless, he’s a great jumper, has bags of pace and looks certain to stay the trip. Betfair Sportsbook is the place to visit for Cue Card: they are currently offering best price 6/1.
Don Poli
The champion novice staying chaser of last season: his RSA Chase win at the Festival last year was a stamp of authority for his Gold Cup chances this year. He’s tough and stays impressively up the Cheltenham hill. Also good to know that RSA Chase winners have done well in recent years: Bob’s Worth (2013 Gold Cup winner) and Lord Windermere (2014 Gold Cup winner) both testament to that. He’s had to work slightly hard to win his races this season, especially the ½ length win over First Lieutenant in the Lexus Chase at Punchestown in December. He should improve and is a 6/1 best shot with Bet 365 and Stan James.
The Outside Threat
A couple of outsiders deserve a positive mention, not least the mightily improving Smad Place. I’m a big fan of this grey. Has the potential to emulate Desert Orchid and One Man and become another household name in the prestigious history of grey horses. He galloped away impressively with The Hennessy Gold Cup under 11 stone 4 and then proved his Cheltenham credentials with a superb victory in the BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase. He jumps beautifully, stays all day and is clearly improving. Ignore the King George run, it wasn’t his kind of race: he prefers a galloping style which concentrates on stamina. He’ll get that at Cheltenham. Each way steal for me at 12/1 best with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.
For those who love a fun flutter on give-away big prices should look no further than the tough and consistent Carlingford Lough. He surprised everybody with a sensational win over the highly fancied Road To Riches (also in the Gold Cup, best priced 16/1 with SkyBet and Coral) in the Leopardstown Irish Gold Cup last month. If the ground comes up heavy at Cheltenham, you’ll be hard pressed to get the 33/1 currently available with Bet 365 and Stan James.
Summing up..
It’s a quality laden field that graces the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year. Tactics and the ground will have a huge say in proceedings. In my opinion, if Smad Place is allowed to dictate things as he has done at Newbury and Cheltenham this season, he could be the one to beat at very generous odds.
FULL GOLD CUP ODDS (BEST PRICED ODDS):
Don Cossack: 4/1 with Bet365
Vautour: 5/1 with Paddy Power
Djakadam: 11/2 with SkyBet
Cue Card: 6/1 with BetFair Sportsbook
Don Poli: 6/1 with Stan James
Smad Place: 12/1 with Paddy Power
Road To Riches: 16/1 with William Hill
Valseur Lido: 20/1 with William Hill
Carlingford Lough: 33/1 with Bet365
Many Clouds: 33/1 with Ladbrokes
Sausalito Sunrise: 40/1 with William Hill
Holywell: 50/1: with Betfred
OFaolains Boy: 66/1 withBet365
Sir Des Champs: 66/1 withBet365
On His Own: 100/1 with Bet365
The Giant Bolster: 100/1 with William Hill
Boston Bob: 100/1 with Coral
Gilgamboa: 100/1 with SkyBet
Morning Assembly: 100/1 with Betfred
Irish Cavalier: 100/1 with BetVictor
Champagne West: 100/1 with Stan James
Ballycasey: 150/1 withBet365
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