A decent field of 16 runners look set to contest the £1.540, 000 Investec Derby at Epsom Downs on Saturday. Despite two healthy market leaders sent out by Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden in the shape of US Army Ranger and Wings Of Desire respectively, it’s still a wide open contest. The draw is going to be even more crucial than ever and will pose an even greater challenge for those with a low draw number. The huge prize money on offer will establish this year’s Derby as the richest race ever run in the UK. This race has not been lucrative for outsiders in the last 20 runnings so we’ll concentrate on the first five in the market.
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Wings Of Desire and US Army Ranger share joint favouritism and there isn’t much to divide them. Wings Of Desire has decent claims based on his narrow defeat of rival Deauville in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York on 13th May. The same partnership of Gosden and Dettori won last year on Golden Horn and with the latter stating that he may improve with a greater test of stamina, he certainly should be in the mix. He is best priced at 5/1 with Stan James, Ladbrokes and William Hill.
US Army Ranger represents arguably the best hopes for the Ballydoyle team and unlike Wings Of Desire, he has proven stamina over 1m 4 furlongs as demonstrated in his gutsy victory in The Chester Vase one month ago. However, this form is a little suspect as the Chester win was anticipated to be a much wider margin than the short head over stablemate Port Douglas. The recent negative fluctuation in his price is also a slight cause for concern. Nonetheless, Aiden O’Brien’s tantalising record in this race (3 triumphs in the last four runnings)is hard to ignore and the recent booking of jockey Ryan Moore is a positive. His price varies greatly such is the speculation of how good he actually is… Betfred holds the value presently at best price 11/2.
Ulysses is all about pedigree. His trainer, Sir Michael Stoute believes he has the right credentials to be a Derby horse and has been bred to do just that. His 9 length win at Newbury last time out should have been a good workout and if you like talking horses, then this is the one for you! He’s been backed from 14’s into 7’s in recent weeks which says a great deal about his chances. However, you can still catch this exciting unexposed chance at 8/1 with Coral.
The big Godolphin entry Cloth Of Stars had had a couple of runs under his belt this season, registering two decent wins at 1m 2f in France. Sheikh Mohammed has surprisingly never won the Derby in the famous blue colours and Cloth Of Stars appears to be the type that could improve with extra distance. He wouldn’t need to improve much more to figure here and considering Godolphin are in cracking form, this could be the one to break the Sheik’s hoodoo at Epsom. He’s easy to back at 7’s with Paddy Power, Bet Victor and Ladbrokes.
Deauville looks the solid each way opportunity. He ran an absolute cracker in the Dante at York and was unlucky to be caught on the line by Wings Of Desire. There’s plenty of logic to suggest that he can easily reverse those placings if he travels as well as he always does. He’s a confirmed stayer and it should be of no concern that Ryan Moore has deserted him in favour of the other O’Brien charge, US Army Ranger. It all depends how well the other unexposed types perform on the day. Deauville has been well backed in recent weeks but can still be grabbed at 10/1 with BetFred and William Hill.
The Verdict
With all the inform 1mile horses bypassing this Classic for later treasures, it’s a tough call to find the winner in this renewal. Aidan O’Brien may well be sending a cavalry charge to Epsom with 5 entries but it’s a relatively weak team which has made the final 16. Definitely not a race to go crazy on but it’s a fascinating punt nonetheless. The safe bet would be a moderate each way on Deauville who is fairly priced at 8/1 (but may be longer on Saturday if the public pile on to the higher rated US Army Ranger) and who will almost certainly stay the distance. With such a weakfish open field, I really like the look of Ulysses simply based on his breeding credentials. Previous Derby and Oaks winners decorate his family tree which makes the 8/1 seem like excellent value. The others have shown what they can do; Ulysses could prove to be something special on the 12 furlong circuit.
Latest Best Odds:
Wings Of Desire 5/1 (William Hill)
US Army Ranger 5/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes)
Cloth Of Stars 7/1 (Bet365, BetVictor)
Ulysses 8/1 (Coral)
Deauville 10/1 (Betfred)
Moonlight Magic 12/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill)
Harzand 14/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)
Massaat 16/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Port Douglas 20/1 (Coral)
Links:
http://www.bbc.com/sport/horse-racing/36430481
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Click to ClaimJon is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and as well as producing content for the site also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account and Cheltenham Festival Facebook page. Jon works in Marketing and Communications in professional sport.
