The next general election, which is to be held on 7th May 2015 is without doubt the most unpredictable in living memory. In the last five years we have got our first coalition government since World War II, just about saved the 300 year old Union between England and Scotland and seen the rise of UK Independence Party (UKIP) as a mainstream force in UK politics. The current political landscape is uncertain with huge ramifications for the way the UK is governed and its place in the Europe let alone the rest of the world. There is a wide range of opinion about what will happen next May, but either way there’s likely to be plenty of value on offer to anyone interested in placing a bet on the many general election betting markets available. Volatility and uncertainty over the political situation make it an ideal time to consider the current odds and place bets on the general election. There is a host of markets including Most Seats, Prime Minister After the General Election, Overall Majority, Next Government, Total Seats (for the various parties), Most Votesand a range of other specials.

The bookmakers and opinion polls are both a useful point of reference in determining what may happen in May 2015, however they can get it badly wrong as well. Back in March 2005 you could have got odds of 50/1 on Barack Obama to be president of the United States, he later went on to be president in 2009. Similarly opinion polls are notoriously difficult to rely upon given various inconsistencies as was shown in the recent Scottish Independence referendumand also back in the 1992 general election where the political uncertainty was of similar magnitude as to todays. The latest opinion polls from YouGov have Labour 2% ahead whereas the Opinium has Labour 7% ahead in the polls, and no doubt that will change markedly as we draw closer to the election.

The bookmakers were correct about the Scottish referendum on independence by predicting a comfortable win for the No vote, while the opinion polls were swinging towards the Yes vote. Not least it’s worth remembering in the run up to the 2010 election opinion polls were predicting a Conservative overall majority, until the TV debates in which Nick Clegg boosted the Lib Dems popularity. Given that polls ask people who they are voting for, as opposed to betting markets, in which people are actually making a considered financial decision over who they think will win, means that the betting markets tend to have a much better record of predicting the outcomeof elections.

I will now look at the main parties in more detail below and consider what bets I think look the best valuegiven the current available odds from the major bookmakers.

General Election Betting 2015:

• Conservatives– Best odds currently available:

  Most Seats- 21/20 at SportingBet.

  Overall Majority– 5/1 at Coral.

  Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government– 9/2 at Paddy Power.

  Conservative Minority Government– 8/1 at Skybet.

  The Conservatives are the party who many have attributed the last 5 years of rule too, the good and the bad of it. Regardless of your political outlook, it’s hard to argue against the fact that the overall economic indicators are improving. The timing of the recent uptick in economic conditions will benefit the Conservatives to a greater effect as we draw closer to the election. There’s no question that many see David Cameron as a more credible Prime Minister than his rivals which is likely to give him a further boost. Because of this I would be confident of placing a bet on the Conservatives to gain an overall majority in the 2015 general election. Coral are offering odds of 5/1, which I anticipate will seem generous come spring 2015.

  However many of the opinion polls suggest that neither Conservatives nor Labour would win enough votes for an outright majority, therefore Its conceivable both Labour and Conservatives could just about achieve a minority government. Furthermore depending on how well UKIP do, it may have implications for the Conservatives share of the vote. However in my view it would be unlikely either the Conservative or Labour party would see minority government as a viable option and would instead seek to rule under a coalition government. Minority governments are fraught with problems and always have a temporary feeling about them which makes them highly unstable. Therefore I believe under this scenario, of the Conservatives just falling short of a majority, a coalition with the Liberal Democrats is probable. Paddy Power are offering 9/2 for a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition which I think is worth a bet on as a part insurance beton any bet on the Conservatives winning the election.

   

• Labour– Best odds currently available:

  Most Seats- Evens at William Hill

  Overall Majority– 5/1 at bet365.

  Labour/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government– 8/1 at Betfair Exchange.

  Labour Minority Government– 7/1 at Skybet.

  Ordinarily the party of opposition usually improves its poll rating as we draw closer to the actual election date, however I think in this case It’s unlikely to happen for Labour given the fractious nature of UK politics at the moment. I think the momentum of improved economic sentiment will benefit Conservatives to a greater extent and the disillusionment with the big three UK political parties will benefit UKIP and possibly the Greens leaving Labour in a difficult position to gain sufficient momentum to win the election. By all accounts the Scottish Labour vote is likely to be decimated by the surge of the Scottish National Party (SNP). A recent YouGov pollasked which political party was most in touch with white working-class people – 21% chose Labour and 27% Ukip. Labour has become detached from their core roots and because of this I cannot see how Labour can achieve enough votes to gain power in May 2015.

  Bet365 are offering 5/1 on Labour winning overall majority, however I think that is far too short given the current outlook, and if you must bet on Labour forming a government I would suggest Labour/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government at 8/1 at Betfair Exchange as a better way to play things.

   

• Liberal Democrats– Best odds currently available:

  Most Seats- 1000/1 at SportingBet.

  Overall Majority– 250/1 at Unibet.

  Labour/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government– 8/1 at Betfair Exchange.

  Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government– 9/2 at Paddy Power.

  We haven’t had a hung parliament two times in a row since 1910, and the way things are going the odds for that happening are likely to shorten considerably as the months go on. Many commentators didn’t think the 2010 coalition would last a year let alone the full term, however things have muddled through and by all accounts has been considered a relative success under the circumstances. Given the uncertainty and instability currently the great British public may vote for a further coalition government next year, and the most likely candidates to hold the power balance could be the Liberal Democrat, albeit slightly tainted and unpopular given the last five years.

  As mentioned previously it would be unlikely any party will want look to cling on to power with a minority government given the inherent instability of minority governments. Therefore instead of betting on minority government I would favour a bet on Liberal Democrat coalition government with Labour at 8/1 at Betfair Exchange or 9/2 with the Conservativesat Paddy Power.

   

• UKIP– Best odds currently available:

  Most Seats- 150/1 at SportingBet.

  Overall Majority– 80/1 at Ladbrokes.

  Realistically the chances of UKIP winning would require a monumental shift in voter sentiment, however the pace of progress from virtually nowhere to now seriously influencing the wider political debate is without question impressive – they are in fact the 3rd favourites to win the Most Seats of all the political parties at the 2015 general election. UKIP gained the most number of votes of any British party in the 2014 European Parliament elections, thereby achieving a total of 24 MEPs. More recently UKIP managed to gain their first elected MPswhen Douglas Carswell won the seat of Clacton, and Mark Reckless won the Rochester and Strood seat (both Conservative defections). UKIP are now in position of political strength that many considered unthinkable 12 months ago.

  While I firmly believe UKIP will win a number of seats in the general election, my view is that it would be highly unlikely UKIP would gain sufficient momentum to seriously challenge. A better way to play the rise of UKIP would be to bet on UKIP to win seats or to form a coalition government. Paddy Power are offering 10/1 on any coalition involving UKIP, while Skybet are offering Evens that UKIP will gain over 6.5 seats. I think UKIP will surpass 7 seats fairly comfortably so consider odds of Evens generous at this stage.

In the coming months Howtobet4free will offer more of our views and opinions about what 2015 general election markets offer the best value and where you should be placing your money. Feel free to comment with your views or betsat the bottom of this article.

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