(3.3 minutes read)
Outsider betting at The Cheltenham Festival is always a source of sublime entertainment. Due to the incredibly competitive nature of the four-day meeting, the huge fields and sheer unpredictability of the undulating course with its punishing uphill finish, the SP’s of winners can vary enormously.
Heavily backed odds on and supposedly bombproof Cheltenham bankers are often overturned by gallant outsiders who have been quietly fancied by connections and punters alike.
Technically however, one of the main factors behind outsider performance is a lot to do with the timing of the Festival: spring is in the air and the sun is shining just that little bit more on the Prestbury Park turf. The formbook can only be judged by long hard winters over often bottomless surfaces: if the going dramatically changes early March, that formbook may as well be thrown out!
The other factor behind outsider betting is simply a big price for a confirmed Cheltenham performer who may be running through a questionable run of form. 33/1 NRNB for a Cheltenham Gold Cup placed horse running again in the same race one year later? You better believe it! Read on..
We have selected five horses of varying recent form but with confirmed Cheltenham winning form with the exception of a 66/1 Paul Nicholls chance who may run a big race if the ground comes up a bit livelier.
KILDISART: The Ultima Handicap Chase, Day One
This Ben Pauling trained 9-year-old has been lightly raced this season, with just the two runs including a fairly respectable 23 length 7th to Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
He runs again in The Ultima for this year’s Festival where he was a brilliant second to The Conditional in the renewal last year. The latter will sadly not be coming back to defend that title but the 25/1 (Coral) still available for Kildisart cannot be ignored when his ability to stay up the hill is evident.
Will come into the race fresh which may suit.
BUVEUR D’AIR: The Unibet Champion Hurdle, Day Two
This year’s renewal of the senior 2 miles hurdle championship is one of the most competitive in recent years considering that any one of the top three in the market have viable claims to emerge victorious. Therefore, it could be a good race for backing an outsider to possibly pounce on any of the market leaders falling short.
Previous champion Buveur D’Air fits this category and considering his injury was more painfully inconvenient that career threatening, the 25/1 (bet365, William Hill) for a horse still possibly in his prime at 10 years old is more than just tempting, especially after one satisfactory reappearance run over unsuitable ground on a track which never really helps speedy types.
Will almost certainly be the each-way steamer on the day.
SCEAU ROYAL: The Champion Chase, Day Two
If you ignore his run-in last year’s Champion Chase, which was just too bad to be true, there must be a squeaky case to be said for Alan King’s Sceau Royal.
His last run beating Champ by 2 lengths in last weekend’s Game Spirit Chase was gutsy, gallant and more than suggests that he has improved a pound or two this season.
No, he is not in the same league as Chacun Pour Soi but he could be the one to run into a place if the others falter. Hence, 25/1 (bet365) is worth throwing a few coins at for a worthwhile each way punt.
HELL RED: The Triumph Hurdle, Day Four
This Paul Nicholls trained juvenile hurdler impressed a lot of people with his first run for the Ditcheat yard last October at Chepstow where he bolted up by 12 lengths over rare good ground.
However, he has been a bitter disappointment since that, especially so after his latest run at Wincanton where he failed to oblige in a lowly rated novice hurdle at odds of 4/11 albeit in totally unsuitable heavy going.
Ultimately, this horse needs a lively surface to demonstrate his talent and simply cannot deliver the goods with any kind of cut in the ground. The Triumph Hurdle looks presently as distant as Mars for this horse but if the going dramatically speeds up by the Friday thanks to some freakishly high temperatures, not unheard of in March, then a few each way pennies at 66/1 (Betfred) could do worse things.
LOSTINTRANSLATION: The Gold Cup, Day Four
This very popular Colin Tizzard staying chaser has burnt many of his followers’ fingers since his brilliant 3rd in last year’s Gold Cup where he stayed on impressively up the hill to get within 1 ½ lengths of Al Boum Photo.
So far this season, he has been desperately disappointing with every run offering very little solace or confidence to his legions of fans hoping for another Tizzard juggernaut in the vein of Native River.
But he is back for another crack at The Gold Cup and if you firmly believe in the horses for courses routine then at 33/1 (Paddy Power with NON-RUNNER NO BET) this could be the bet of the week especially as he has not run at Cheltenham this season: therefore the jury could still be out on this one.
RECAP
KILDISART: The Ultima Handicap Chase, Day One 25/1 (Coral)
BUVEUR D’AIR: The Unibet Champion Hurdle 25/1 (bet365, William Hill)
SCEAU ROYAL: The Champion Chase 25/1 (Betfred)
HELL RED: The Triumph Hurdle 66/1 (Betfred)
LOSTINTRANSLATION: The Gold Cup 33/1 (Paddy Power NRNB)
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