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The EU referendum is arguably the most important decision for the United Kingdom in a lifetime, and already the biggest political betting event in British history ever. It’s the sort of event which prompts everyone and their dog to voice an opinion and place a bet on the outcome. Not since the Scottish independence referendum has there been so much interest in political betting events. With just a few hours to go we look at what the bookies are telling us about the EU Referendum and try to decipher where the value is in the EU referendum betting markets.
We have heard from both sides, the remain and leave camps for what seems like an excruciatingly long campaign period. I’m not going to get into the nitty gritty of the arguments for and against being part of a 28 country union as I’m sure you’re sick to death of it all. The choice is reasonably straightforward, given there are only two choices; In or Out! Despite the binary nature of the selection, there’s a plethora of different EU referendum betting markets to have a bet on including; EU membership Referendum Result, Leave Vote Percentage, Remain Vote Percentage, Total Result in England Seats, Total Result in Scotland Seats, Total Result in Wales Seats, Total Result in Northern Ireland Seats, and Turnout Percentage.
The odds for the EU referendum result have moved over the last couple of months, with the odds for remain shortening (odds getting lower) over the weekend. Only last Thursday (16th June) the implied odds on Betfair Exchange of leave vote were 41.06%. The implied odds on Betfair Exchange have since shifted and now indicate the implied odds for vote leave are 25%. The betting markets naturally are determined by the weight of money rather than the number of individuals placing bets. Interestingly William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe recently said “So far 66% of all the money staked on the EU referendum has been placed on remain, but 69% of all individual bets placed are for leave.” Ladbrokes reported on Monday that there has been a shift in momentum, with a significant swing in the betting markets in favour of vote remain.
The EU referendum polls have painted a confusing picture, and given the poor predictive ability following the 2015 General Election result I struggle to treat the polls with any credibility. It appears as each day goes past we get one poll which contradicts the poll we heard the day before. Last week it seemed that there were more polls coming in favour of vote leave, whereas over the last few days it appears the latest polls are neck and neck.
City traders appeared to firmly bet against Brexit on Monday when the pound surged in value, although I wouldn’t read too much into daily ups and downs of the financial markets, and the impact on the likely outcome of the EU referendum.
Remain – Latest EU Referendum Odds (Best Odds)
1/6 with Betfred – Bet now with Betfred!
Leave – Latest EU Referendum Odds (Best Odds)
5/1 with bet365 – Bet now with bet365!
Remain Vote Percentage – Latest EU Referendum Odds (Best Odds)
50-55%: 7/4 with Ladbrokes - Bet now with Ladbrokes!
55-60%: 5/2 with Betfred - Bet now with Betfred!
45-50%: 7/1 with Betfred - Bet now with Betfred!
60-65%: 9/1 with Betfred - Bet now with Betfred!
40-45%: 16/1 with Betfred - Bet now with Betfred!
65-70%: 25/1 with Betfred - Bet now with Betfred!
40% or under: 33/1 with Betfred - Bet now with Betfred!
70% or over: 50/1 with Betfred - Bet now with Betfred!
EU Referendum Betting - What might happen?
Recent history from the 2015 General Election and Scottish independence referendum suggests the betting markets and opinion polls have weak predictive abilities. At the General Election the odds on a Conservative majority victory were well above 2/1 and higher for all of the campaign, far behind various coalition outcomes.
My view is that the vote will end closer than the betting markets suggest and therefore for me the value is in backing Vote Leave related markets. There appears to be a consistent trend in the polls, which I don’t think the betting markets are fully pricing in. I would predict the vote will be far closer than the current betting odds on the EU referendum suggest. I also think the turnout will be higher than anticipated so think odds of 4/5 with bet365 on a Turnout Percentage above 70% is a decent bet.
My Recommended Bets
- Back Vote Leave (best priced at odds of 5/1 with bet365). Bet now with bet365!
- Back Remain Vote Percentage 45% - 50% (best priced at odds of 7/1 with Betfred). Bet now with Betfred!
- Back Turnout Percentage above 70% (best priced at odds of 4/5 with bet365). Bet now with bet365!
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Click to ClaimFrancois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account
