Today (November 3) President Trump faces off with former Vice President Joe Biden as the United States elect their choice to lead the country as President for the next four years. The election sees Republican candidate Trump try to win a second term against Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Biden served as Barrack Obama’s Vice President for 8 years (2008-2016) and would return the White House to the Democrats after a 4 year absence.
Nothing is ever dull when Donald Trump is campaigning, and particularly since he has just one opponent to target all of his efforts against (Biden was confirmed the Democratic nominee on August 20).
Trump’s Vice President would continue to be former governor of Indiana Mike Pence, while Biden has chosen Kamala Harris as a “would be VP”. Harris unsuccessfully ran for the main nomination herself dropping out back in December 2019 after a poor performance in the polls and issues with fundraising for her campaign (running for President is not cheap, Hillary Clinton spent over $750 million in 2016).
Both Vice-President picks were around 150/1 last week, as the ballot is listed the combination (i.e. Trump / Pence and Biden / Harris). For this to land you would need Trump or Biden to drop out before election results are in, leaving the Vice-President pick as the only one on the ticket. This hasn’t happened so those cheeky long odds punters look to have missed out (wit the exchanges listing 1000/1 now and bookies deeming this a two-horse race.
We take a look at how the election works, and a host of enticing betting markets below.
Odds for next US President (As of 4pm GMT Tuesday November 3):
Joe Biden 4/9 Bet365
Donald Trump 2/1 PaddyPower
BUT FIRST HERE ARE TWO ENHANCED ODDS OFFERS FOR NEW CUSTOMERS
*Trump to win the US Election at 50/1*
MOBILE ONLY
Key Terms:
New customers using EPUS2020. Mobile only. Applies to bets placed from 09:00 on 22 October 2020 until 23:59 on 3 November 2020. Max £1 bet at 50/1. Returns paid as 10 x £5 free bets (30 day expiry). Player & currency restrictions & terms apply.
Promo code: EPUS2020
Starts: 09:00 on 22 October 2020
Ends: 23:59 on 3 November 2020
Claim Trump to win the US Election at 50/1!
* 3/1 Joe Biden to Win the 2020 US Presidential Election *
The US System - Electoral College
The way the US is structured, not dissimilar to the UK is a “first past the post system”. This means the votes in different geographical areas are tallied up. 50 States vote with 538 electoral college votes available. The electoral college in the US has 538 votes available, meaning 270 votes is the magic number to get the keys for the White House.
As an example the swing state of Florida has 29 electoral college votes. Trump won in 2016 with 49% to Clinton’s 47.8% (3.2% going to independents in the State). That narrow margin still gave Trump 29 electoral college votes while all the campaigning efforts of the Clinton campaign amounted to nothing.
The electoral college system means candidates effectively write off states they cannot win and focus all their energy on the swing states. As an example California has been Democratic since 1992 and in 2016 Clinton comfortably won with 61% of the vote. Trump will not be expecting any success there and essentially his campaign accept that the 55 electoral college votes are going to go to Biden.
The electoral college system favors the Republican candidate. Biden is a stingy 1/6 to win the electoral college at a time he is 4/9 to be president. At the same time Trump is 2/1 to win the election without winning the popular vote (as he did in 2016) so that scenario is very much on the table again.
Example Bets
Trump to lose popular vote but still be re-elected
5/2 (Enhanced from 2/1 as a Paddy Power Price) Paddy Power
Biden to win the popular vote by 10% or more (which would see him cruise into the White House)
6/4 Paddy Power
The Swing States that Decide the Election
In 11 of the last 12 elections (exception being 1992) whichever way Florida voted was also the way the country voted. This means it has flip flopped between Democrat and Republican numerous times over the last 50 years. Florida famously fell into an absolute farce in 2000 as the Supreme Court had to rule a month after the election that George Bush had won the state and thus giving him a narrow win in the electoral college system over Al Gore.
Due to it having 29 electoral college votes the widely held belief is that if Trump doesn’t win Florida he would really struggle to make up the votes elsewhere.
Florida is one of the main swing states along with Arizona, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. Traditionally Democrat states that Trump won in 2016 would also now be considered swing states as Biden tries to flip back and Trump tries to cling on. These include Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Watch out too for the state of Minnesota, this is where Minneapolis is, the scene of much of the summer’s race riots after the death of George Floyd. It is also expected to be a close run contest
Those are the key states that will decide the election, and a look at the odds in a few shows how close each of those are considered.
Florida
Democratic 4/6 Bet365
Republican 11/10 Paddy Power
Michigan
Democratic 1/4 Bet365
Republican 5/2 Betfred
Minnesota
Democratic 1/4 Bet Victor
Republican 11/4 Betfred
Paddy Power Specials
If you sign up as a new customer with Paddy Power they will refund your first bet up to £20 in cash if your first bet loses (terms apply)
Power Prices - From Paddy Power:
Trump 2016 – A result that shocked the world
In 2016 Trump received 304 electoral college votes, Clinton just 227.
Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, polling 63 million total votes against Clinton who received almost 66 million. As explained above the electoral college system favored Trump who had lots of narrow wins in swing states (taking all available electoral college votes) while suffering a number of heavier defeats in the States Clinton won.
On October 13, 3 weeks before the 2016 election Trump was trading at 7.2 on Betfair, and a 14% chance of winning. Trump’s chances appeared so slim that Paddy Power had actually already paid out on Clinton to win, as one of the bookies famous early payouts (designed to gain publicity and put the punters money back in their account so they can bet again, which sometimes backfires as this did).
A major influence on the betting odds were the polls, which bookmakers used to guide the odds they offered. As with Brexit in the UK the polls suggested a comfortable win for Clinton / Remain and it was only late into election night that it became clear how wrong they were. Trump again trails in the polls, in fact by similar margins, however the bookmakers are not following the polls as closely this time around. So unfortunately no one is getting 6/1 or more on Trump, at the moment anyway...
Polls have come under criticism for a few reasons:
- A left wing media bias in reporting polls that suit the narrative of Biden doing well (the bulk of the mainstream media in the US including CNN and MSNBC have made no secret of their desire for Biden to win).
- People being polled saying they will vote Biden as they feel embarrassed at telling the pollster they will be voting for Trump (the idea of “holding your nose and voting for Trump”).
- The fact the majority of polls happen on 15-20 minute phone calls, meaning a certain older demographic is being polled (i.e. willing to take the call). That demographic is more likely to support Biden.
- The fact nationwide polling is irrelevant, as it effectively only guides on the popular vote (which Biden is strongly fancied to win). The only polls really of interest at this point are those in the “swing states” that will decide the election.
What will change either candidates’ chances (and the betting odds) in the buildup to election day?
The extensive campaign teams for both parties will be working 24/7 to position their candidate in the best light, target advertising campaigns at their opponents, and in some cases deciding when to break news that helps their candidate or is detrimental to their opponent.
In 2016 Trump looked absolutely done when the infamous “grab them by the pussy” Access Hollywood tape broke, but somehow he recovered. Hillary Clinton suffered an unfortunate announcement about the FBI looking at her deleted email server just 2 weeks out from election day, which undoubtedly played on the minds of some undecided voters.
This time around COVID is a major factor, with Trump facing criticism for his handling of the crisis. This means a positive or negative turn for infection and death rates in the lead up to election day may well be a factor for voters.
On the other side Joe Biden is weathering a storm over accusations his son Hunter Biden took money from Chinese and Ukrainian firms to provide access to his father during his time as Vice President. The extent to which those accusations can be substantiated, and the Biden campaigns reaction, could yet play a big role.
And then there is the fall our from final debate on Thursday October 21. The two candidates went head to head with the goal of tripping one another up on policy or character in order to sway those undecided voters. Most will have considered it a score draw!
When will it all End
Trump has spent the last few weeks challenging the integrity of the election, in particular mail in voting and potential for fraud (although nothing has been proven). He also has tripped up on media questions about accepting the result of the election. The Democrats are not without issues here either, with Hillary Clinton advising Biden to not concede on election night regardless of the situation.
All this, combined with how tight the race was expected to be in swing states, means the bookmakers are offering spread odds across when a winner might be confirmed. In a normal US election the odds would strongly favour a winner being announced on election night. There may be some value in a long drawn out process of recounts in swing states which, if the Supreme Court have to intervene as they did in 2000, would see this one dragged out for weeks on end…
Getting the Best Value Odds
Politics can be tough to pick and therefore tough for bookmakers to price up. This is not a sport with a form guide where bookmakers agree broadly speaking on the two team’s chances. This means it is well worth shopping around for the best odds, and also worth tracking your bet to see chances to protect your bets as odds move. It is also worth tracking daily as the polls come out, and the scandal and controversy breaks as different bookmakers will react differently with their pricing.
As an example at the time of writing Trump was 15/8 on one main UK bookmaker and 6/4 on another. Your payout would be 20% less if you didn’t shop around to find your 15/8.
Good luck, and maybe start with our top tips below!
Our US Election 2020 Betting Top Tips
- Trump to lose popular vote but still be re-elected - 5/2 (Enhanced from 2/1) Paddy Power
- Trump to win 270-299 Electoral College Votes - 6/1 Betfair
- Trump wins at least one state Clinton won in 2016 - 7/1 Paddy Power
*Trump to win the US Election at 50/1*
MOBILE ONLY
Key Terms:
New customers using EPUS2020. Mobile only. Applies to bets placed from 09:00 on 22 October 2020 until 23:59 on 3 November 2020. Max £1 bet at 50/1. Returns paid as 10 x £5 free bets (30 day expiry). Player & currency restrictions & terms apply.
Promo code: EPUS2020
Starts: 09:00 on 22 October 2020
Ends: 23:59 on 3 November 2020
Claim Trump to win the US Election at 50/1!
* 3/1 Joe Biden to Win the 2020 US Presidential Election *
Please note all odds are correct at the time of publishing (2:00pm 24th October 2020) and are subject to change.
Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply
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