Betting Tips and Previews: Tennis

Wimbledon 2015 Championships

Wimbledon 2015 - Most open tournament in years?

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Wimbledon 2015



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The 2015 Wimbledon Championships are shortly upon us, a two week festival of tennis, which will no doubt be particularly welcomed by all sports fans during a summer with no major football tournament taking place this summer. Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are all likely to feature heavily, although there are signs of a new generation of tennis stars ready to establish themselves.  

Wimbledon is the oldest tennis tournament in the world and arguably the best and most popular tennis Grand Slam. We take a look at the Men’s tournament and analyse the main protagonists, and give our recommendations of where to put your money.

Men’s Singles

It’s difficult not to talk about the ‘big four’ in Tennis when deliberating about the likely winners of a tennis Grand Slam event. Since the 2005 French Open, amazingly only three other men have won a Grand Slam event outside of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, and Murray. However since the start of 2014 half of the Grand Slams have been won by men other than the ‘big four.’ Marin Cilic won the US Open last year, with Stan Wawrinka winning the Australian Open in 2014 and adding the French Open a couple of weeks ago in emphatic style to defy the odds against Novak Djokovic. Given that backdrop I fully expect this year’s Wimbledon to be one of the most open in years. In fact many bookmakers currently have Stan Wawrinka as 4th favourite ahead of two times Wimbledon champion Rafa Nadal.

Novak Djokovic – The Strong Favourite

The bookmakers are loud and clear on who they consider to be the overwhelming favourite, Novak Djokovic is best priced currently at 7/5 with SportingBet and is even as shortly priced at evens with Unibet. Novak Djokovic certainly justifies his favourite tag, given his astonishing form over the past 4 years which has seen him pick up 7 of his 8 Grand Slams. You have to be pretty confident to be backing Djokovic at those odds, and for me I see no value in backing Djokovic pre-tournament. Djokovic will have tricky six rounds to get through and there is no guarantee he won’t come unstuck, despite whatever any tipster tells you pre-tournament. I would favour backing Djokovic in play at higher odds if he looks in trouble, rather than an outright bet pre-tournament. Djokovic has won only 3 of his 8 Grand Slams away from Australia and still has something to prove in the other Slams to be considered one of the all-time greats.

The Contenders

If Djokovic doesn’t win the tournament, then it’s highly likely the winner will come from one of Murray, Nadal, Federer or Wawrinka. Currently Murray is best priced at 3/1 with Ladbrokes, Federer at 13/2 with Coral, Nadal at 12/1 with SkyBet, and Wawrinka at 16/1 with BetVictor. At those odds I would be most comfortable backing my two Swiss compatriots. I don’t see Nadal challenging and Murray’s odds are too short to offer any value. Federer despite now pushing 34 years old is still most comfortable on the grass and narrowly lost to Djokovic in a five set thriller last year. Federer since changing to a larger racket, has seen a marked improvement in results with four titles won this year, the latest being last week at the Halle Open in Germany. The danger for Federer backers is that Federer seems less able to compete in the Grand Slams of late, and unable to deal with the demands of playing best out of five set matches every other day. If the draw opens up and Federer gets through the first week fairly comfortably then Federer will be in real contention. Realistically this is Federer’s best chance to win another Grand Slam and he will be well aware that this may be his last chance.

Stan Wawrinka is fresh from a French Open victory earlier this month and has definitely raised his profile among the wider tennis audience since winning the Australian Open last year. Wawrinka out fought and out powered Novak Djokovic from the baseline to win the French Open and now has to be taken seriously at Grand Slams. Wawrinka has one of the most delightful backhands in the game, and the ever increasingly speedier grass court year on year will only help his cause. Wawrinka has not been past the quarter final stage at Wimbledon, although he hadn’t got past the equivalent stage at the French and Australian Open before winning those tournaments. Wawrinka is a much more complete package today, and the added experience from winning two Grand Slams could just lay the foundations for success at the All England Championships this year.

Andy Murray’s ability fully justifies the expectations that will be on him from the British public to perform at Wimbledon. Murray has won three titles this year, with the latest at Queen’s club last week in a competent and authoritative display. Murray hasn’t won a Grand Slam since he won Wimbledon in 2013 against Novak Djokovic, although after a disappointing 2014, 2015 has promised more. This year Murray finished runner up in the Australian Open and got to the Semi Final at the French Open. Murray still doesn’t seem to possess the same on court presence as Djokovic, Nadal and Federer in the big tournaments, and has particularly struggled against Djokovic at the Slams. Murray’s odds have drifted lower since the win at Queens Club, best priced at 3/1 with Ladbrokes to win Wimbledon, and therefore in my opinion still far too short given the unpredictable field.

The Outsiders

This year’s betting markets for Wimbledon like most years before give strong indications towards the established order in Men’s Tennis. At some point that cartel will be broken, and there have been signs over the last 12-18 months that the next generation could take the step up Grand Slam honours. I am talking about the likes of Kei Nishkori, Grigor Dmitrov, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios and last year’s 2014 US Open winner Marin Cilic. These are the players who have the most potential to cause a surprise and major shock against the big boys. They all have games well suited to grass and could easily reach the last four if their draw falls right.

The standout talent from the emerging group is Grigor Dmitrov, who has arguably the most complete game on the tour, has long been compared to Federer given their similar playing stylist play. However in the last twelve months, Dmitrov has been better known for his relationship with WTA player Maria Sharapova than his great tennis results. Dmitrov is best priced at 33/1 with Ladbrokes, although better odds can be obtained on the Betfair Exchange format. Dmitrov’s status of outsider is well justified, however this may well be the tournament which matures the Bulgarian. Dmitrov beat Andy Murray last year at Wimbledon to reach the Semi-Final and I see no reason why reason Dmitrov can’t do even better this time. Grass suits his playing style and he has the shot making, athleticism and power to worry any of the established favourites.

Novelty Bets

For those of you who enjoy a novelty bet, you might want to consider looking at what William Hill have to offer; full days play washed out (not including Centre Court) is currently 8/1, any play to be cautioned for excessive grunting on court is 8/1 and for the official caterers for the event to run out of Champagne or Strawberries is 33/1!

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply

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Francois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account

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