The prestigious stayers handicap, The Betfred Cesarewitch, takes place at Newmarket this Saturday with a maximum field of 34 runners at time of writing. The race has baffled punters over the years, throwing up an assortment of huge priced winners including two 66/1 shots in successive years (2012/13), and two 50/1 winners (including last year and in 2008). Clearly the distance finds a few of the fancied runners out. Therefore, I have picked out two outsiders and one in the top five of the betting as selections for this enthralling renewal. The each way party this week is definitely at the houses of SkyBet, who seem to be regular providers of decent each way place value and William Hill who will both be offering places 1-6! Most other firms will be offering 5 places including bet365, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Stan James and Coral.
The Doncaster Cup held last month seems to hold most of the form emphasis with the favourite St Michel coming out of this. Incidentally, he is best to back at 6/1, which is widely available. However, I quite like the look of Sweet Selection who despite coming an admirable 7th in the Doncaster Cup race, is now 5ibs better off than St Michel who finished around 5 lengths ahead. A little bit to find but Sweet Selection has had a solid season, notching up several wins and seems to have avoided the scrutiny of the handicapper: the past race winners have also recently favoured being at the light end of the handicap. I think, however, his price is not great value considering the competitiveness of this handicap: easy to back at 9/1 with Sporting Bet, Stan James, Ladbrokes and Coral but also 8/1 with SkyBet and William Hill for 6 places each way.
Going down the card, a couple of outsiders make worthy appeal. One almost impossible to ignore is last year’s winner Grumeti. He won this race last year at a whopping 50/1 but has lost his way a little this season possibly due to the weight penalties attributed to his Cesarewitch win. He’s back to 8 stone 6, a much more suitable racing mark for this Alan King trained 8 year old. It’s also not unheard of for previous winners to come back and win this, as Aaim To Prosper proved in 2010 and 2012. SkyBet holds outstanding value here on Grumeti with best odds 33/1 and 6 places paid for each way.
Finally, considering the hefty prices of recent winners, I’ve gone for a real rank outsider in the shape of the oddly named Wind Place And Sho. This James Eustace trained 4 year old has notched several low key wins in the last year or so and he appreciates fast ground. The trainer has picked up some recent good form and this could be a good time to catch him. True, the horse didn’t pick up in the Cesarewitch trial at Newmarket earlier this season but he is racing at his lowest mark for quite some time: so if you have a couple of pounds burning a hole in your wallet, head over to Paddy Power or Coral for 66/1 at 5 places for each or SkyBet and William Hill at 50/1 for the 6 places.
Good luck in the Cesarewitch!
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