All eyes on Epsom this Saturday as the Surrey based racecourse stages their flagship Group One classic, The Betfred Derby. Trainer Aiden O’Brien carries the aces as he currently saddles the short priced favourite Benvenuto Cellini.
However, the recent significant rainfall (and with plenty more to come!) has opened the race considerably to entries who will appreciate some cut in the ground.
With the ground likely to come up on the softer side of good, we check out the horses most likely to benefit from testing conditions.
Racecourse Travel Details
By Train
Epsom Station is connected by both South West Trains and Southern Trains.
Connections from London Waterloo & London Victoria. Take a 10-minute taxi or bus ride from the station. Please note that during The Betfred Derby Festival a shuttle bus service runs from Epsom station.
Tattenham Corner Station. Approximately 1/2 mile walk to the racecourse.
Epsom Downs Station. Approximately 1 mile walk to the racecourse.
Plan your journey using Transport for London or National Rail.
Each Way Offers
Boylesports, Bet Victor and race sponsors Betfred are offering four places instead of the customary three for each way bets.
The Big Players
Benvenuto Cellini
The Aiden O’Brien trained race favourite has more than proved his staying credentials with three wins out of this last four starts, most noticeably staying 1 mile and four furlongs in The Chester Vase nearly a month ago.
He ran on well to suggest that the engine should be well suited to the Epsom challenge. However, his ability to stay in testing conditions is unproven, making this a wobbly favourite at 2/1 best with Bet365, Betfred and Boylesports.
Item
This Andrew Balding trained winner of the Dante Stakes at York comes into this after that eye-catching performance and providing he can handle the testing ground at Epsom.
He looked like he can stay further than 1 mile 2 furlongs so comes into each way consideration although poor value at 4/1 best with William Hill and Betfred.
Pierre Bonnard
The Aiden O’Brien trained second string may get a lot closer to the lead of the betting market judging by recent betting transactions and that he is the horse most likely in the field to appreciate a lot of cut in the ground.
Despite being beaten in his only two starts this season (one being the Leopardstown Derby trial), he does hold a Group 1 victory to his name where he won by 2 lengths in soft conditions at Saint-Cloud last October. Our selection to win this year’s renewal at 11/2 best with Bet365 and William Hill.
James J Braddock
Another who will appreciate testing conditions is the Joseph O’Brien trained James J Braddock who won his maiden in desperate conditions at The Curragh. He also has the beating of Pierre Bonnard from the Group 3 Derby trial at Leopardstown last month.
He is sure to improve and looks enticing each way value at 11/1 with Bet Victor who are also paying four places for each way bets.
Maltese Cross
Trained by William Haggas, Maltese Cross has won his last three starts, and his pedigree strongly suggests he should handle 1 mile four furlongs with ease.
However, all his wins have come over ground conditions ranging from good to good/firm so it is questionable whether he will manage on Saturday’s expected surface. He certainly enters each way calculations. Best odds of 10/1 with Bet365.
Other Soft Ground Specialists
Three horses could come into play for the predicted heavy going. Action (20/1 with Boylesports paying four places), trained by Aiden O’Brien, has put in solid runs over testing ground whilst Christmas Day (25/1 with Bet365) has won three times on soft going. Bay Of Brilliance (14/1 with Bet365) trained by Ralph Beckett also has decent form over soft to heavy ground.
Verdict
A very ropey favourite indeed in the shape of Benvenuto Cellini who easily has the best form over 1 mile 4 furlongs but faces fundamental questions over his ability to handle the testing surface.
With more rain forecast, there is considerably more value and common sense to home in on the horses proven over heavy ground. Pierre Bonnard fits the profile nicely and would not have to improve much more to figure prominently.
SELECTION: PIERRE BONNARD WIN 11/2 BET365
Min deposit requirement. Registration Required. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply
Click to Claim
