The King George: Can Cue Card pull his Thistlecracker on Boxing Day?
Its races like this that makes the sport what it is. The announcement from the Tizzard yard earlier this week that World Hurdle champion and Gold Cup antepost favourite, Thistlecrack, will take on his stable-mate Cue Card, has lit up what was looking like a very pedestrian King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. The omission of Coneygree is now firmly forgotten as the jumps racing world looks forward to the potential start of a rivalry not seen since the glory days of Denman and Kauto Star. Let’s not doubt ourselves here. This is the racing equivalent of Barcelona v Real Madrid and it’s a wonderful way for Channel 4 to sign off their live racing coverage before handing over to ITV in the New Year. But hype aside, there’s still a huge conundrum to solve here. Who is going to win??
GO WIN OR GO HOME!
Firstly, we need to deal with the each way issue. It’s quite simple. There isn’t one. With just 5 runners going to post and therefore only 2 places in the money, we are going to work on the assumption that this is a two horse race. And quite frankly, considering the two powerhouses leading the betting, it’s bordering on foolish to consider anyone else. Tea For Two has showed some promise but is not quite in the same class as the front two. Silviniaco Conti on distant past form has a great chance but he is a forlorn shadow of his double King George winning ways and unless Paul Nicholls has conjured up one of his training miracles, he is best ignored once again. Josses Hill, trained by Nicky Henderson, ran a great race in The Peterborough but also needs to improve somewhat to figure. So, down to the serious business. Do you back the seasoned experienced but aging Cue Card or go for the slightly riskier option on the rising novice pretender Thistlecrack?
THE VERDICT
My worry is Cue Card’s age and whether he has retained his pace over 3 miles. His stamina appears to be intact although he fairly laboured to see off an unfit Coneygree in the Betfair Chase at Haydock after a rusty third in his first start of the season in The Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. To me, he seemed to be a better horse last year and I’m not sure if the spark is still there, or at least there yet. Thistlecrack, on the other hand, is warming to his new task of chasing with relish. Yes, a couple of novicy errors in his three runs this season but these minor slips have been taken out of all proportion. His mistake at Cheltenham was when approaching a ditch, and he simply stood off too early out of pure enthusiasm. These tweaks would have been tightened up and his last run at Newbury was almost perfection. Thistlecrack has proven stamina and based on his efforts after the last fence in last year’s Cheltenham World Hurdle which he dominated, he’s got a turn of foot too. He hasn’t come off the bridle in any of his wins in the last year so it will be interesting to see how he reacts to having Cue Card upsides him with one fence to go, if that is the case.
Therefore, I’m going for youthful exuberance and a possible chasing star in the shape of Thistlecrack. He has the potential to dominate the staying chase league for the next few seasons and this could be where it all starts. Thistlecrack can be backed at best price 11/8 with William Hill - Bet Here! 5/4 most firms for Cue Card.
The Coral Welsh Grand National
This legendary long distance slog over Chepstow’s soggy 3 miles 5 furlongs undulating course is always a sight to behold after Boxing Day. The fixture used to be always under threat of cancellation due to poor drainage on the course, although this has improved since work was carried out on the course in 2014. It has always proved to be a good guide for future races such as The Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National.
This year’s renewal has an extra touch of class with the inclusion of Colin Tizzard’s Hennessey winner Native River who leads the market at best odds 6/1 (most firms). He is no doubt a class act but carrying 11 stone 12 around this track in a mud-lark marathon is a pretty scary betting proposition. The stats speak for themselves. There have only been 3 winners carrying more than 10 stone 9 since 1997.
Therefore, I think that Warrantor trained by Warren Greatrex could run a big race after his second in a decent staying handicap at Cheltenham in November. He is best priced at 16/1 with most firms.
RECAP:
The King George VI Chase, Kempton, Boxing Day: THISTLECRACK win - 11/8 with William Hill - Bet Here!
The Coral Welsh National, Chepstow, December 27th: WARRANTOR each way - 16/1 with bet365 - Bet Here!
Good luck with all your festive betting!
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