Premier League football starts this week, which means lots of Premier League football betting! The likes of Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and the rest will be competing to over the next ten months in the best football league in the world! As the new season dawns the possibilities are endless, but who should you be backing? Which team should you be placing a bet on to win the Premier League? Whose a good bet for the drop? Should you be placing a punt on an outsider to break into the top six?
Howtobet4free will guide you through our picks for the best bets for the new season. Don't place a bet before you read this!
Whose going to win the Premier League?
Ok so let's start with the biggest conundrum and where the main Premier League betting attention is, who should you backing to win the Premier League trophy? Given last season it looks like it's a two horse race between Liverpool and Manchester City, with the 3rd favourites with the bookmakers, Tottenham at 20/1 (Betfair). I think the bookies are right, the top two contenders are miles in front of the rest and it's pretty certain that one of City or Liverpool will win the title. I wouldn't bother to look outside these two.
Man City have strengthened their squad with the additions such as Rhodri, Angelino, and Steffen, however apart from Rhodri you wouldn't expect any of those players to feature heavily. For City the loss of Vincent Kompany as a club captain, player and overall positive factor in the Manchester City dressing room could be vital. Also remember Kompany's late goal against Leicester City in the end was the difference between winning the league and not. Man City are as short as 1/2 with Coral to win the Premier League, which for me is just too short to back at this stage.
Liverpool did everything they could have done last season, pushing Manchester City all the way to the last day of the season with a 97 points total. Liverpool went 20 matches unbeaten, most number of clean sheets and had two players (Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane) as joint top goalscorers. Liverpool did claim a Champions League trophy for a fantastic season, but will feel hard done by not have won the Premier League.
Can Liverpool react positively and push on from last season and claim the top prize in English football? I think it will come down to the matches against Manchester City. Liverpool didn't manage to beat City in the league last season (losing at the Etihad and drawing a Anfield). If Klopp's men can reverse that I think Liverpool will go on to win the league.
For me the value is in Liverpool winning the Premier League. Liverpool have kept a magnificent eleven and squad together who are likely to only improve and get better! 11/4 with Betfred looks a decent bet to take before the league season starts, get backing it!
Premier League Relegation Fodder?
Let's look now look at the bottom end of the Premier League matters and turn our attention to the Premier Relegation betting markets. Last season Huddersfield and Fulham looked doomed very early on in the Premier League campaign. But who are the teams you should be backing to go down this year? Read on...
This year's promoted teams look like they can compete well in the Premier League. Aston Villa have been spending big money and are right up there as one of the highest spenders on transfers over the summer in the whole of European football. Sheffield United have also splashed the cash, and with Chris Wilder you get the feeling they will be very competitive in every match. Norwich City came up as champions and you can easily see them avoiding the drop given their strong team unit.
I think this year's strong league could present problems for some of the Premier League familiar teams! Brighton just about narrowly avoided the drop after a dismal 2019. Only scoring 35 goals in 38 games and conceding 60 goals was a season which lead to Chis Hughton parting with the seaside club. Unbelievably Brighton only picked up two wins in the Premier League in 2019! Brighton have hardly hugely strengthened their squad this campaign under the new manger, Graham Potter. Can Potter stop the rot? I don't think so! Brighton to be relegated at 2/1 with William Hill looks like a great bet to me!
Newcastle United have had a turbulent summer which doesn't bode well for the new season. Rafa has gone, so to Ayoze Perez (Leicester City bound) and Rondon! Newcastle have hurriedly brought in some reinforcements in time for the new season, but I just don't think the players are good enough. Chaos on and off the field beckons again for Newcastle United this season. Rafa Benitez was worth an extra 10 - 15 points to Newcastle United last season. Without Rafa and some questionable signings I can see the Geordies being pulled into a big relegation battle. Newcastle are not as doomed as Brighton, but they are worth a gamble to be relegated from the Premier League at 9/4 with Bet Victor!
Who will Finish in the Top 4 of the Premier League
The top tier places in the Premier League will be ultra competitive this year. You've got Liverpool and Manchester City virtually guaranteed a top four finish, and then two of Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal or Manchester United. Outsiders such as Everton, West Ham and Leicester City can't be completely discounted, but you would think it's out 6 top teams for the four places.
Arsenal and Manchester United looked to have done some good business in the summer transfer market and for me look like they may exceed bookies expectations. Currently the bookies are offering the following odds to finish in the top four:
- Tottenham - 11/20 with Unibet
- Manchester United - 11/10 with Coral
- Arsenal - 6/4 with Betfair
- Chelsea - 6/5 with Betfred
Arsenal are still hoping to bring in defensive re-reinforcements, and I'm expecting Arsenal to push on and make the top four this season. The Gunners home form was very strong and with Bellerin back and Emery having a second season i'm confident we'll see further improvements. Arsenal have the firepower, it's just a question whether their defence can be resolute enough to grind out the performances needed to get into the top four. 6/4 looks a good bet with Betfair!
Manchester United have spent some serious cash and it looks like there's more spending to come. Harry Maguire, Daniel James and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are some great signings, albeit whether they justify the £150m total transfer spend is more debatable. Solskjaer will have a full pre-season which should help the young Norwegian manager this time round. United have a tough opening match against Chelsea on 11th August, but if they can start well, confidence will go from strength, and anything above evens for a top four finish is certainly backable!
Chelsea and Spurs are the teams I think will under perform expectations this season. Frank Lampard has a difficult job, with Chelsea unable to splash the cash and having lost their best player in Eden Hazard. Has the Chelsea job come slightly too early in Lampard's managerial career? Perhaps it has. Lampard will be expected to finish in the top 3 or 4 as a minimum, and anything less will be viewed as failure.
Tottenham had a good season last year and ended with a Champions League final. Spurs were without Harry Kane for a long duration of the season and will feel their performance over the season deserved more. But if you look into the detail of the way Spurs finished the 2018/2019 season, things don't look so rosy. Tottenham only managed to win 1 game in 3 out of their last 18 games and were disappointing in the Champions League final and tepid in the final stages of the season.
Tottenham have acquired Tanguy Ndombele from Lyon, but the squad still looks a little thin to manage a major assault on the all the big competitions. Peak Spurs has been reached, don't be surprised if Tottenham finish outside the top four this season! Bet Victor are offering 6/4 on Tottenham finishing outside the top four in the Premier League - that looks a good bet to back!
Top Ten Finish in the Premier League?
So we've had a look at the top, bottom and top four, but what about a value bet for a top ten Premier League finish? Who will grab a top half finish...
For this market you don't get much value from backing the big top 6 teams, so i'm going to ignore them. I think it's safe to say Liverpool, Manchester City, Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United will finish in the top ten, but I don't see much point in backing them at 1/20 or 1/50 for a season long bet!
After a great last season in the Premier League Wolves are hovering around at 4/9 with Betfair to finish in the top ten. I think Wolves should finish in the top ten, but with that return it doesn't really excite me. Most teams find the second season in the Premier League tougher and it wouldn't overly surprise me if Wolves don't do quite as well as they did in their first season.
Everton (2/5 with Unibet) and Leicester City (8/15 with Coral) are similar prices, but again the odds don't strike me as particularly tempting. Everton were very inconsistent and could easily get swept up in a relegation battle as much they could fight for European football. Leicester City will have to adjust to life without Harry Maguire, but should be good for a top ten finish given the strength and depth in the squad.
I quite like the odds on West Ham to finish in the top ten of the Premier League at 11/10 with Betfred! West Ham finished tenth last year and could have done so much more. West Ham have a top manager who can maximise the use of this squad and deal with big characters. If Felipe Anderson can improve again this season I would fancy them to push on just below the top 6.
West Ham may have lost Marko Arnautovic to Chinese football, but Manuel Pellegrini is a wily dealer in the transfer market and has brought in some fresh talent from Spanish and German football which will add further quality to the Hammers squad. You always felt Arnautovic was more of hindrance than a plus for team spirit last season, so i'm expecting that to translate into positive results on the pitch.
If you fancy an outside shot Watford at 11/4 with Coral and Aston Villa at 9/2 with Unibet look tempting, but for me West Ham are the value. Strong squad, money to spend, great manager and some very talented players should mean a top ten finish is virtually guaranteed and at odds over evens that has to be backed!
Premier League 2019-20 Best Bets Recap
- Liverpool: To Win the Premier League 2019-20 @ 11/4 with Betfred
- Newcastle United: To be relegated from the Premier League 2019-20 @ 9/4 with Bet Victor
- Tottenham: Not to finish in the top 4 of the Premier League @ 6/4 with Bet Victor
- West Ham: To finish in the top ten of the Premier League @ 11/10 with Betfred
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Please note all odds are correct at the time of publishing (11:00 4th August 2019) and are subject to change.
Francois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account