The win index spread bet is the closest bet to a fixed odd bet offered in spread betting. 25 points are awarded to the winning team, 10 points for the draw, and 0 to the losing team. A winning team will receive 25 points regardless of whether they win by one goal, or by 5 goals. This bet pitches two teams against one another, and there is no option to stake money on a draw. The draw settlement can be profitable if a team is unfancied in the win index (opening price below 10 points) or can also offer some compensation if a team fails to win (the payout on a draw of 10 points is obviously better than a payout of zero for losing). As the points are settled at zero, 10 and 25 points, win index stakes may be lower than those when betting total goals or supremacy as each stake is multiplied by up to 25 points. It is important to be aware that one goal in a close match can swing the market settlement by either 10 or 15 points.
As an example in a Champions League group game between Braga and Manchester Utd, Manchester Utd are favourites to win the match and are priced at 13 – 14.5 with Braga priced at 9.5 – 11 as shown in image 1 (Manchester Utd have a great share of the 25 points available at the opening price). There are several options available; you can sell Manchester Utd at 13 or buy Manchester Utd at 14.5, and you could also buy Braga at 11 or sell Braga as 9.5. Note that buying Manchester Utd and selling Braga is essentially the same thing (as is selling Manchester Utd and buying Braga). The market is simply ran like this to allow both buying and selling on each team.
Favouring Manchester Utd
If you believe that Manchester Utd are likely to win you would buy Manchester Utd at 14.5 for let’s suppose a £2 stake (this is the stake per point with 25 points available) as shown in image 2.
If Manchester Utd win the game your profit would be £21. This is because the difference between the buy price of 14.5 and the settlement price of 25 points is 10.5 points (£2 x 10.5 = £21). If the match is a draw the market would settle at 10 points and you would lose £9 (£2 x 4.5), and if Manchester Utd lose the game (i.e. Braga win the game) the market would settle at zero points and you would lose £29 (£2 x 14.5). If you believe that Manchester Utd are likely to win the game you also have the option to sell Braga at the given win index odds sell price of 9.5 (as shown in image 3). This is effectively the same as buying the Manchester Utd win index and would give a slight variation in the payouts, this is covered below.
If you believe that Braga are likely to win the game you would select to buy Braga at 11, at again let’s suppose a £2 stake as shown in image 4. As Braga are less fancied the price to buy is lower (11 compared to 14.5 to buy Manchester Utd) so effectively to buy Braga gives more value, with a lesser liability and greater gains.
With 10 points available for a draw if the match is drawn buying Braga will only occur a small loss proportional to total liability, effectively offering protection. If Braga do win the game your profit would be £21 (£2 x 14), if the match is a draw you would lose £2 (£2 x 1) and if Braga lose the game (i.e. Manchester Utd win the game) you would lose £22 (£2 x 11). If you believe that Braga are likely to win the game you also have the option to sell Manchester Utd at the given win index odds sell price of 13, again with similar payouts.
The difference in payout does vary slightly between buying on team and selling the other. This generally gives a slight variation on the payout in the case of a draw so it is best to check the two options before deciding whether to buy one team, or sell the other. Image 5 shows all possible payouts from our example at £2 a point.
In the Win index there is no stop loss as the market only has three possible settlements, zero, 10 and 25 points.
Francois is one of Howtobet4free’s co-founders and has written many of Howtobet4free’s popular Betting Guides. Francois also helps run the @howtobet4free_ Twitter account